Many companies and experts believe that the use of imported methanol to olefins is not only low production costs (because of cheap imported alcohol), investment (without methanol plant construction), but also to reduce domestic energy consumption and carbon dioxide generated during the production of methanol and wastewater leaving abroad, serve multiple purposes of a good thing, in coastal areas should be encouraged to build more sets of imported methanol to olefins project in order to make full use of foreign resources, methanol, olefins production of the domestic shortage of products, reduce domestic oil consumption. But this is obviously a little better idea of wishful thinking. In fact, imports of methanol to olefins using the prospect of far from the bright imagination, even more than domestic coal methanol to olefins by the risk of even more significant.
Risk one: may face "no rice"
Since 2008, the financial crisis, global methanol demand growth slows, coupled with the rapid expansion of China's methanol production capacity, the Middle East has focused on several sets of large-scale methanol production plant, methanol lead to global overcapacity. Although China's methanol production capacity surplus, it is still the fastest growing global demand for methanol country. In this case, the rush to open the market to find a buyer and methanol producers in the Middle East, it will naturally keep a close eye Chinese market at lower prices to the large number of Chinese sales of methanol, led to increased imports of methanol, year after year, even more than the total consumption was amount of 1 / 3. However, if this ground a number of methanol to olefins plant construction, and methanol as raw materials imported. Then, once the devices are completed, you need a lot of methanol, the raw material supply will be difficult to protect. On the one hand, as the global economic recovery, demand will increase for methanol, methanol sales channels in the Middle East will be more smooth and broad, is bound to reduce China's methanol exports. On the other hand, the reason why low methanol prices in the Middle East, with its low-priced sales in order to open the Chinese market as soon as possible to consider business strategy, even with the use of rich and affordable oil associated gas as raw material for. But with world oil resources and tends to reduce the depletion of oil associated gas will be a valuable oil and gas resources for the production of olefins, paraffins and other value-added products, rather than the basis for the production of low value-added chemical raw material methanol. Combined with the methanol to olefins, methanol to propylene and improve industrial technology matures, the Middle East and other places with large methanol plant enterprises, will also use these techniques, olefins and polypropylene products. Thereby significantly reducing the export of methanol, so that many rely on imports for raw materials, methanol methanol to olefins unit facing a "no rice straw," the risk. Not long ago, Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Association and the Planning Institute of oil experts and the Middle East Several major methanol producers to communicate, the other made it clear that: commitment to the Chinese companies can not provide sufficient methanol.
Risk II: price volatility transmission is not easy
Although in 2009, imports CIF methanol fell below 1,500 yuan / ton. However, in July 2008 to August, it was once ascribed to 4,600 yuan / ton. If companies do not own methanol plant, but all rely on outsourcing and even relied on imports for raw materials, methanol, methanol price volatility if more of the above, and because the bargaining power of their own poor (currently the main control in the petrochemical, oil and the two Group hands), not the raw material costs caused by price changes, changes in conduction time out, is bound to bear the risk of a huge market, some companies would be a bankrupt.
Risk III: high financial cost
MTO economies of scale of 60 tons / year, according to three tons of methanol to produce 1 ton olefin basis, a set of 600,000 tons / year of methanol to olefins unit, on consumption of 2,000 tons of methanol. An enterprise computing raw materials inventory minimum seven days, it normally takes stock 14,000 tons of methanol. Taking into account imports of methanol loading, voyage, sea, into the territory, customs clearance, unloading and transport and other sectors of uncertainty, to ensure long term operation of olefin units, enterprises should have a 15-day inventory of methanol, which is 30,000 tons. Even at 2,500 yuan / ton, the required funds will reach 75 million yuan. Then 600,000 tons olefin plant products normally stock 10,000 to 20,000 tons, the use of funds at least $ 150 million. Coupled with the everyday needs of enterprise funds, is a 600,000 tons / year of imports of methanol to olefins plant, the normal operation of the flow of funds will be $ 300 billion, direct push corporate financial costs. Such a large amount of funds used, once the products unmarketable or funds due to other causes strand breaks, companies will face enormous and even fatal risks.
In addition, with the growing shortage of oil resources, as is currently the best alternatives to oil, methanol, constantly made breakthroughs in the application of technology driven, its use will become more widespread, and may even be some countries like oil, energy and strategic material, causing great concern and began to compete. By then, imports of methanol is more difficult, the cost will be higher, it will also increase the risk of imported methanol to olefins.
Reminded the company, the project must be integrated before, considering the domestic and international markets and the uncertainty of horse care items imported methanol to olefins, in particular, to prevent the "rush." Is considering the import of methanol to olefins of risks and uncertainties, the state in the development of "industrial vinyl" five "plan", the layout is only recommended in coastal areas 2 to 3 sets total 1.8 million tons / year of imports of methanol to olefins project. But rough statistics, the construction of the proposed import of methanol to olefins project, there are already 6 to 8 sets, total capacity of more than 3.5 million tons / year, has been overheating.